Evidence Base, References & Supporting Documents

This Appendix establishes the evidence base supporting the One Big Change Kenya Government Implementation Proposal. It has six purposes:

1. 1identify the authoritative sources underlying major statements in the proposal
2. 2distinguish established national policy from One Big Change programme design
3. 3distinguish verified facts from planning assumptions
4. 4identify claims that require additional evidence before final Government submission
5. 5establish the evidence that the 90-day founding programme itself must generate
6. 6provide a traceable source register for future revisions, procurement, evaluation and national-scale decisions

The proposal will not rely on unsupported statements merely because they appear plausible.

The proposal and internal evidence register should use the following status system.

Kenya's national curriculum direction predates One Big Change. The National Curriculum Policy establishes the competency-based curriculum direction and describes implementation as requiring participation from education providers, implementers and stakeholders.

The Basic Education Curriculum Framework provides the architecture for competency-based education, including:

The Basic Education Curriculum Framework explicitly provides for Senior School and pathways as part of the competency-based curriculum structure. KICD's current curriculum-materials system includes Senior School curriculum designs and approved materials.

KICD's approved Grade 10 materials demonstrate implementation across pathways and learning areas, while the Ministry's Grade 10 selection system allows learners to identify schools according to subject combinations and pathways.

KNEC also operates a competency-based assessment learning portal providing learning and training resources for educators and assessment professionals, including Senior School and pathway-related content.

Official Parliament reporting immediately before the FY2026/27 Budget Statement described the approved education estimate as approximately:

The Budget Statement subsequently presented an education-sector figure of approximately:

including approximately:

The Appropriation Act subsequently authorised total FY2026/27 Government expenditure of approximately KSh 4.82 trillion.

The proposed One Big Change founding budget is:

This is a One Big Change programme design and planning figure. It is not a Government-established benchmark.

The figure must be tested against:

The KSh 1.75bn planning envelope is small relative to total national education-sector expenditure but material relative to any individual programme. That comparison may be useful for context.

It must not be used to imply:

Government can easily afford the programme.

The existence of a large sector budget does not mean uncommitted funding is available. Public expenditure remains subject to appropriation, budget programmes, public-finance law and procurement requirements.

The Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Act applies to procurement by public entities and provides the framework for:

Where programme evaluation develops into formal research, the appropriate Kenyan research and ethics route must be established. NACOSTI's framework provides for accredited institutional scientific and ethics review committees and research licensing arrangements.

This is a plausible and central programme proposition. However, the ten-school founding programme should not pretend it already knows precisely:

• which readiness gaps dominate
• where they are concentrated
• how severe they are
• what interventions they require

Some variation can reasonably be expected across school contexts, but a strong national statement requires evidence.

What can be stated confidently is that Senior School CBA is actively being rolled out in 2026 through KNEC guidance, assessment schedules and systems.

Whether this has created a specific degree of:

• teacher confusion
• workload
• implementation inconsistency
• school stress

requires additional evidence.

The current working long-list is:

Ten schools cannot establish statistical national representativeness. They can provide implementation-learning evidence across deliberately varied contexts.

The target of 50 LocaeHubs is a One Big Change Year 1 scale architecture. It is not existing Government infrastructure and not yet an evidenced optimum.

The Year 1 target is 6,000 connected schools in total. This includes the approximately 500 Core Implementation Schools.

The current Year 1 model assumes approximately two facilitators per Hub or approximately 100 Hub facilitators.

The One Big Change model proposes three structured annual implementation moments:

The public-facing framework groups work under:

The potential Year 1 ambition of KSh 1 billion to KSh 3 billion in additional verified partner value is not secured.

LocaeAwards are a proposed evidence-based annual recognition mechanism.

Any university named in the proposal must have its status described precisely. Possible status categories:

A conversation must not be converted into "University partner" without evidence of agreement.

Named roles within the proposal should distinguish:

This distinction is essential for Government credibility.

The founding programme currently provides:

The current Year 1 model contains KSh 300m for 50 Hubs or an implied planning average of:

By December 2026 the programme should replace assumptions with observed evidence wherever possible. The evidence set should include:

The final Government proposal should maintain an internal register such as:

Academic and independent research should be added where it strengthens the case. For every study, record:

A study involving one small local sample must not automatically be generalised nationally.

Before using an external research finding, ask:

Stakeholder interviews conducted during the founding phase should be coded as programme evidence. For example:

Interview evidence should not automatically be presented as representative of the entire national system.

Each major source should record:

This is especially important during periods of active policy implementation.

Before financial submission, finance should confirm:

The education budget is contextual evidence. It is not itself proof that funding is available for One Big Change.

Before formal Government submission:

Appendix 10 should not remain static. At the December Decision Gate it should be updated to include:

The Appendix then becomes part of the evidence base for the Year 1 procurement decision.

The programme should apply one simple rule:

If we cannot show where a factual claim came from, it does not belong in the Government proposal as a fact.

It may instead be presented as:

• a question
• a hypothesis
• a planning assumption
• something the founding programme will test